Earth Our Country
July 2020 – Alain’s post
Dear friends,
It’s been over a month since I completed the new US Election version of “Earth our Country” – www.earthourcountry.com .
Since we are going through a period that represents a genuine milestone in history, I felt like sharing some quick personal telegraphic views on the events that have unfolded in July:
What a hot summer… We just had the hottest decade on record. The warming keeps accelerating. We don’t hear the deniers any longer. Climate change is now obvious for almost everyone. However, the record went totally unnoticed – as it was now normal business…
The Coronavirus: it’s got worse. We are now getting into a second wave. Honestly, I am a little surprised with the geographic spread of the virus. I thought that rich countries would contain the pandemics much better – with their far superior medical system – while the impact on places with a much weaker infrastructure and a huge concentration of people in megalopolises – like Africa and Latin America – would be devastating.
Yes, Latin America is being hit pretty hard, in particular Brazil. But Africa is not for the moment – which is awesome. Rich countries continue to take the front row.
Amazingly, the US is number one, with over 5 million officially confirmed cases and 170,000 deaths – representing roughly one fourth of the whole world, while it accounts for only four percent of the global population. This is a shock for everyone, inside and outside. Candidly: it is unbelievable.
Overall, it now seems pretty clear that only an efficient vaccine(s) will get the situation under control. 170 development teams are competing worldwide, with national governments sponsoring their indigenous efforts and pre-buying lots for their own people – instead of pooling a global effort. We need a vaccine that everyone can benefit from before year end. It would be great if mass vaccinations could start in October or November, since Covid19 appears to behave like a seasonal flu which hits us harder again in the winter season. Until you can get vaccinated, stay safe. Protect yourself. Wear a mask…
Meanwhile, the global economic pace is mysterious, as if there was more to come. Wall street is stronger than ever, in complete disconnect with the true economy – where record unemployment and uncertainty evidently prevail. The dollar is has lost almost twenty percent of its value – under the fear that:
- i) Massive injection of liquidities is creating a completely artificial bull market,
- ii) Public debt has exceeded levels where reimbursement is a material possible.
- iii) The election will steer potential rogue behavior.
As a result, gold is skyrocketing – which is the symptom of the dominant fear momentum that is raising in the background – and of the excess of monetary supply. Are we headed for a second crash? Maybe. You should be very careful with your money right now.
With Coronavirus out of control, has the US has lost its hand – is a US come back still possible, while its democracy is now under siege, with a concerning bipartisan divide, fueled by a president who wants to win a second mandate no-matter-what-it-takes?
You have to read the article below by anthropologist Wade Davis. Not that we should agree with it, but it raises an interesting perspective. It’s a seed for some good thoughts.
I think that the US is still strong and has the inner strength to recalibrate its society. If Joe Biden wins, there is hope. Also, I am encouraged with the choice of Kamala Harris. It is no-nonsense decision – a good sign for the future. Let’s keep in mind that the choice of Joe’s VP is paramount: Joe is 77. After two terms he would be 85, so there is a material probability that his VP will be our next president as well.
Good news for Europe, Europe wins another day – or even more. Kudos to Mr. Macron and Mrs. Merkel. Pooling European debts is a humongous move. For the first time we are mutualizing debts across countries. This is the second true beginning of political integration, after the creation of the Euro. This is bigger than the coverage that we have seen. In fact, for the first time, European countries are funding/covering each other besides the EU budget. And the Euro is up again.
China leverages the Covid19 crisis to truly take Hong Kong over. Democracies barely reacted – what can they individually do? Honestly there is no real surprise. But it’s such a shame. China has a long way to go to be our global role model while it behaves more like a tyranny every day. China should think the other way around: if it wants to play globally, the Communist Party should show its velvet glove while the US is so weak, instead of using this awkward time window to openly further its despotic control over minorities – like the Uirghurs – and its freer and most advanced provinces – like Hong Kong.
Lebanon is imploding again. Let’s hope that we don’t have another Syria in the making. Also, Greece and Turkey are escalating a new tension around gas in the Mediterranean… This is exactly when a global federation would stand up.
All the best to all of you. We know that there is a solution.
Earth Our Country.
Alain
